Perdita Logs

Hippie (Germany) wrote: Here are the continued plans for the downfall of Mikey A Sax s A Mun hold A Mun s A Ruh - Als A Ruh - Als A Als - Par A Bri - Bor F BOB s A Bri - Bor A Nav - Bar F MAO - Por A Den - NTH - ENG - Bri F ENG c A Den - Bri F NTH c A Den - Bri F BHM - Den F BAL - Swe
Here's what Germany had to say about his orders: Im a bit hamstrung here.I`d really like to move Nav - Auv but Spain is so easy for Mikey to defend that I have to delay his moves there as much as possible. Personally I think this is heading headlong for a draw but I cant see any other way around it.	Here is the French response at the time of writing: F Mor - SAO F Por s F Mor - SAO F And - Gib F SOG c A Alg - And A Alg - SOG - And A Bor s A Par A Par s A Bor A Lyo - Als A Swi s A Lyo - Als A Pie s A Swi F LIG - GOL
The above order sets are not the complete set of orders, nor are they necessarily the final set. They are merely the relevant subsets of the orders that I had available 24 hours before the deadline when this section was written.

As it turned out, there were no modifications, and these are the results:

Spring 2008 Results.
Britain (Jim Hill) R.I.P. 2005	Egypt (Suzi Holyoake) A Ode - Pod A Ank - WBS - Ode F EME c A Cai - Izm A Cai - EME - Izm F Tun - WME F Lib - Tun F ION c A Ale - Nap F LBN c A Ale - Nap A Ale - LBN - ION - Nap A Kaz s UKRAINIAN A Vol A Alb s UKRAINIAN A Ser F Apu - ADR F Nap - MAL F Tyr s A Rom A Rom s FRENCH A Ven
France (Mike Smith) F Mor - SAO F Por s F Mor - SAO (*cut*) F And - Gib F SOG c A Alg - And A Alg - SOG - And A Aus s UKRAINE A Hun A Cro s A Aus A Ven s A Aus A Mar s A Aus (*void*) A Bor s A Par (*cut*, *dislodged*) A Par s A Bor (*cut*) A Lyo - Als (*bounce*) A Swi s A Lyo - Als A Pie s A Swi F LIG - GOL	Germany (Hippie) A Mur s A Ura hold A Ura s A Gor hold A Gor s A Mos hold A Mos s A Bie hold A Lat s A Bie hold A Lit s A Bie hold A Bie s A Mos hold A Kra s A Slo hold A Cze s A Slo hold A Slo s A Cze hold A Sax s A Mun hold A Mun s A Ruh - Als A Ruh - Als (*bounce*) A Als - Par (*bounce*) A Bri - Bor F BOB s A Bri - Bor A Nav - Bar F MAO - Por (*bounce*) A Den - NTH - ENG - Bri F ENG c A Den - Bri F NTH c A Den - Bri F BHM - Den F BAL - Swe
Italy (John Fouhy) R.I.P. 2005	Poland (Drew Buddie) R.I.P. 2004
Russia (Ross A Chapman) R.I.P. 2002	Spain (Jason Gool) R.I.P. 2002
Turkey (David Ashton) R.I.P. 1998	Ukraine (Piers Forrest) A Vol H A CRP S A Vol F Ros S A Vol A Kha S A CRP A Kie S Egyptian A Ode - Pod A Rum S Egyptian A Ode - Pod A Hun S Egyptian A Ode - Pod A Sev-Don F WBS C Egyptian A Ank - Ode A Ser S A Hun

The French unit in Bordeaux retreats to Auvergne.

Hippie comments that he feels that this game is heading straight into a draw. Is he correct? Let us see if he can find a weakness in the combined might of France, Egypt and the Ukraine. I will be assuming that each of these powers prefers sharing in a draw to losing (and that they prefer winning to sharing in a draw!). In other words Egypt, France and the Ukraine will not stab each other if it means that Germany will benefit as a result - but that they will stab if they can win (or have a fair chance of winning) as a result of that stab. I'll also be assuming, at least at first, that we have an agressive Germany, and everybody else is defending. I aim to go on to consider a defensive Germany against an attacking alliance, and if time is availble I'll consider whether a mixed strategy is possible, i.e. an attacking strategy which does not open up any defensive holes. No promises though - I'm making this up as I go along!

Let us take the situation in the east, province by province.

Volga: This province has up to three German units available to attack it, and four uncuttable supports (three if one threatens Kazakhstan by occupying Siberia, don't forget that the Fleet in Rostov can support Volga due to the canal).

Unfortunately, in order to defend Volga, Kharkov cannot support the Central Russian Plateau. Kharkov would have provided the only uncuttable support. If Moscow is diverted to attack the Central Russian Plateau we could see CRP being dislodged. Fortunately, Kiel is available to support CRP, and even if Bielorussia cuts the support from Kiel then CRP cannot be dislodged!

Podolia is trivially defensible, by the use of Odessa and Rumania, and Hungary does not need support. Austria is quite vulnerable, with potentially a four way attack upon it - but it has more than ample defensive units available. Similarly, Pie is available to support Switzerland.

We now have the West to examine, which at first sight this seems to be the only area for German hope. In the next map segment I have chosen to show units which have no direct bearing upon the border IF they are unaccounted for above, which are available for convoy to France, Where alternatives exist (e.g. Alb, Izm and Nap) I have shown the one which makes the map smaller, Germany has no unaccounted for armies which are available for convoy.

It should also be noted that unless the German is pushed back then France will have two disbands. Paris is defendable by use of Auvergne and Lyons - and Switzerland may be used to attack Alsace, with Pie and Mar mounting a supported attack on Switzerland to keep it French. Though this swiss attack does not aid Paris it does threaten the German without opening a defensive hole. In hindsight this is rubbish. Marseilles should support Auvergne to hold.

Bordeaux must be sacrificed to the German, unless it is deemed that Bordeaux is valued more highly than Paris - and even then it could not be recovered reliably.

Barcelona can be made French again, this seems neccesary if France is not forced to disband a potentially crucial unit - though it would be more advantageous to the allies if the Egyptian could convoy in an army this cannot be done without losing a French SC to Egypt. I'd take Barcelona by attacking Barcelona from the Gulf off Lyon, with Egyptian support. Simultaneously, Andalusa would go to Madrid in an effort to prevent Madrid falling, and the fleet in the Straits of Gibraltar would go to Andalusa for the same reason.

Meanwhile, the fleet in Gibraltar should move to Seville, where it would be more effective.

France's remaining Atlantic fleets would mutually support each other - and this would seem to lock Spain up against the German.

Possible future problems would be a German army in Navarra attacking Auvergne, Auvergne may be supported by moving the Egyptian fleet in TYS to GoL now. Paris will fall eventually, but this should not break the defensive line.

It seems that Hippie is right, and that (unless I have erred) a stalemate is inevitable if the optimum defensive strategy is played. In other words, the optimum German attack cannot win the game unless a mistake is made by the enemies of Germany.

The next question which must be asked is this: Is an attack possible which will weaken Germany?

Even if an attack ISN'T possible then paradoxically it may be Germany's best interest to 'err' and allow an attack to succeed. Perhaps if an attack does happen Germany may be able to sow dissension among the allies and then mount an offensive which makes use of the less than optimum defenses - or perhaps Germany may be able to draw the allies out of position allowing a counter offensive. This is not ideal as it has risk of losing all, but it is the only way to go if a draw is unpalatable for Hippie. (Anyone else trying to adopt a similar strategy, breaking the line to make good of the disorganisation, would be committing suicide, as the only person to benefit would be Hippie, and Hippie is close to the win). I'll not discuss these possibilities now, mainly because I've whittered on for long enough, and I haven't the inclination to look further now. I'll leave the investigation of this possibility as a little exercise for the reader of these logs after the game is done (assuming that Hippie didn't think of it, and pull it off, himself!)

In looking for attack plans for the alliance, I shall only include such plans that would not weaken the defensive line.

Moscow could be safely attacked from Volga with the support of the Central Russian Plateau and Volga would be defended by ordering F Ros-Vol supported by Kaz. This, however, could be easily blocked by using Latvia to support Moscow. An attack on Bielorussia is blocked just as easily. This story is repeated across the board, with attacks easily blocked by a supporting unit - or by the danger of a breach in the defence.

This is my first look at the whole board situation for a while, and, unless I have made an error and there is some sneaky thing which I've overlooked, then I feel it highly likely that the game will end in a stalemate. In fact, I'm surprised that one of the players, who presumably are continually studying this problem in more depth than I, have not proposed that a draw be declared already!

Here are possible outcomes of this game:

• Win by Germany (assuming that I have made an error, a not impossible presumption)
• Win by Germany (assuming that the allies err in their defence)
• Germany pushed back (assuming that I have erred)

• Win by Germany (assuming that an ally does something silly for short term gain)
• 4 way stalemate (assumes that each player prefers a solo to a stalemate, and a draw to someone else winning a solo)
• Germany falling back (this would open the game up again, and lead to either the allies fighting and Germany making use of the dissension to strike - Germany's hope, or to one of the allies making gains leading to a new balance where Germany is playng 'Stop the Leader' with the others.)

I consider the second as the most likely outcome, though the third would be the most entertaining. The third would be a risky business for Germany (whether to fall back in the east or west and allow Ukraine or France to benefit - Piers in the Ukraine is certainly more scary. Sorry Mikey, but you don't inspire that kind of fear but on the other hand Piers may be less dangerous as he has Suzi nearby to keep him in check, whilst Mikey is rather close to the German centre of power, and still fuming over being betrayed!)

I'd love to see the third outcome happen, and have Germany fall back. It would certainly confuse a few people!

Mikey, in France, made the following comment:

Whoops.

Right now the game is very balanced. Only Hippie can win, either of the other three of us can lose the game.

I can lose the game through poor 'tactical' orders, as can the other two. (I have the most units of the three of us with the greater chance to screw up an imporant order.) Strategically, I can do little except hold out. My stall is now set - I have to defend against Hippie. Should we make any gains and my sc count start to rise, my position is such that Egypt can simply walk in to several undefended sc's to end any rise of French power again.

The way things are in the west, I think we can hold Hippie! (Famous last words that probably rank alongside 'what corner' - Ayrton Senna and 'that tastes nice - what is it?'-Eva Braun)

I could try to talk hippie into a ceasefire, offering the chance for me to break the alliance against him, and let him concentrate on the east but

1. ) He probably won't trust me.
2. ) He is managing fine on his own.
3. ) It's a bloody stupid idea anyway - he might just win!

My best guess for the end game - a fourway draw.

The only proviso I would make is that if we can flank Hippie in Siberia and take a scandinavian sc or two from him, Suzi & Piers might press him in the east. I think Hippie will manage to reinforce this area in time though.

I trust the above isn't too laughable but that's the way I see it.

... and speaking of Hippie, he's just submitted a rather cunning set of moves, which I had completely overlooked:

A Mun s A Ruh - Als
A Ruh - Als
A Als - Lyo
A Bri - Par
A Bor s A Bri - Par
A Bar - Auv

This should gain him Paris, whilst not risking his current position.

To counter this, Mikey would have to attack Bordeaux with Auvergne. I don't see any security holes for Mikey in doing such a thing, though Hippie could counter this by attacking Paris from Bordeaux with the support of Bri, and use is Bay of Biscay fleet to keep Mike out of Bordeaux. Unfortunately this would have the disadvantage of bouncing in Bordeaux, leaving it French, IF Mikey foresaw all this (which he hasn't).

-----

Mikey has just had a change of plan, and updated his orders, the changes can be seen in the results.

Autumn 2008 Results.
Britain (Jim Hill) R.I.P. 2005	Egypt (Suzi Holyoake) F WME s FRANCE F GOL - Bar A Rom s A Ven A Nap hold F ADR hold F ION hold F MAL hold F Tun hold F LBN hold F EME hold A Izm - Ank A Ode s A Pod A Pod s FRANCE Aus - Slo A Alb s UKRAINE A Ser A Kaz s UKRAINE A Vol F Tys hold
France (Mike Smith) F Gol - Bar A And - Mad F SOG - And A Auv Support A Par (*cut*) A Lyo Support A Par (*cut*) A Par Hold (*dislodged*) F SAO - POR (*bounce*) F Por - Nav (*bounce*) F Gib - SAO (*bounce*) A Pie - Swi (*bounce*) A Mar S A Pie - Swi A Swi - Aus (*bounce*) A Mil S A Swi - Aus A Ven S A Swi - Aus A Cro S A Swi - Aus A Aus - Slo (*bounce*)	Germany (Hippie) A Mur s A Ura hold A Ura s A Gor hold A Gor s A Mos hold A Mos s A Bie hold A Lat s A Bie hold A Lit s A Bie hold A Bie s A Mos hold A Kra s A Slo hold A Cze s A Slo hold A Slo s A Cze hold A Sax s A Mun hold A Mun s A Ruh - Als A Ruh - Als (*bounce*) A Als - Lyo (*bounce*) A Bri - Par A Bor s A Bri - Par A Bar - Auv (*bounce*, *dislodged*, *disbanded NRP*) F BoB - Nav (*bounce*) F MAO hold F ENG s F MAO hold F NTH - Bel F Den - NTH F Swe - Nwy
Italy (John Fouhy) R.I.P. 2005	Poland (Drew Buddie) R.I.P. 2004
Russia (Ross A Chapman) R.I.P. 2002	Spain (Jason Gool) R.I.P. 2002
Turkey (David Ashton) R.I.P. 1998	Ukraine (Piers Forrest) A Vol H F Ros S A Vol A Don S A Vol A CRP S A Kie A Kha S A CRP A Kie S Egyptian A Pod A Rum S Egyptian A Pod A Ser S A Hun F WBS S A Rum

The French Army in Paris retreats to Picardy.

The following table summarises the changing SC situation - this is not always the same as the number of adjusts!

The following table contains a game summary, broken down by power.

The NMR/Late score are for the current player.

Dropouts:
No players have yet dropped out of this game. Though Ydris (Turkey), Ross (Russia), Drew (Poland), Jason (Spain), Jim (England) and John (Italy) have been eliminated.

The following table contains a game summary, broken down by SC. Sc's are grouped roughly according to geographical area.

            Start End
      SC       95 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
----Africa----------------------------------------------------------
         Libya  .  E  E  E  I  I  I  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E
       Morocco  .  B  S  S  S  S  S  S  F  F  F  E  E  F  F
       Tunisia  .  I  I  I  I  I  I  I  E  E  F  F  E  E  E
---Britain----------------------------------------------------------
     Edinburgh  B  B  B  B  B  B  B  B  B  G  G  G  G  G  G
     Gibraltar  B  B  B  S  S  S  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
     Liverpool  B  B  B  B  B  B  B  G  G  B  B  G  G  G  G
        London  B  B  B  G  G  G  B  B  G  G  G  G  G  G  G
-Central Europe-----------------------------------------------------
       Austria  .  I  I  I  I  G  G  G  G  F  F  F  F  F  F
      Bulgaria  .  T  T  I  I  I  I  U  U  U  E  U  U  U  U
       Croatia  .  I  I  I  I  I  I  I  I  I  I  F  F  F  F
Czechoslovakia  .  P  P  P  P  P  P  P  P  G  G  G  G  G  G
        Greece  .  T  T  I  I  I  I  E  E  G  E  E  E  E  E
       Hungary  .  U  U  U  I  I  I  I  U  U  U  U  F  U  U
       Rumania  .  U  U  U  I  U  I  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
        Serbia  .  .  I  I  I  I  I  I  E  E  E  U  U  U  U
----Egypt-----------------------------------------------------------
    Alexandria  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E
         Aswan  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E
         Cairo  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E
----France----------------------------------------------------------
      Bordeaux  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  G
          Lyon  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
    Marseilles  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
         Paris  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  G
---Germany----------------------------------------------------------
        Berlin  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G
     Frankfurt  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G
       Hamburg  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G
        Munich  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G
----Italy-----------------------------------------------------------
         Milan  I  I  I  I  I  I  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
        Naples  I  I  I  I  I  I  I  I  E  E  E  E  E  E  E
          Rome  I  I  I  I  I  I  I  I  I  F  F  F  F  E  E
        Venice  I  I  I  I  I  I  I  I  I  F  F  F  F  F  F
--Middle East-------------------------------------------------------
          Iran  .  T  T  T  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E
        Israel  .  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E
  Saudi Arabia  .  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E
----Poland----------------------------------------------------------
        Gdansk  P  P  P  P  P  P  P  P  P  P  G  G  G  G  G
        Krakow  P  P  P  P  P  P  P  P  P  G  G  G  G  G  G
        Warsaw  P  P  P  P  P  P  P  P  P  P  G  G  G  G  G
----Russia----------------------------------------------------------
         Gorky  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  U  U  G  G  G  G  G
        Moscow  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  P  U  U  U  G  G  G
      Murmansk  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G
        Rostov  R  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
St. Petersburg  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  P  G  G  G  G  G  G
-SovSatellite-------------------------------------------------------
   Bielorussia  .  P  P  P  R  R  U  P  P  P  U  U  G  G  G
       Georgia  .  T  R  R  R  R  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
     Lithuania  .  P  P  P  P  R  P  P  P  G  G  G  G  G  G
--Scandinavia-------------------------------------------------------
       Denmark  .  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G
        Norway  .  B  B  B  B  B  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G
        Sweden  .  R  R  P  P  P  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G
----Spain-----------------------------------------------------------
     Barcelona  S  S  S  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
        Madrid  S  S  S  S  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
       Seville  S  S  B  B  S  F  S  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
----Turkey----------------------------------------------------------
         Adana  T  T  T  T  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E
        Ankara  T  T  T  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  E  E  E
      Istanbul  T  T  T  I  I  I  E  E  E  E  E  U  U  U  U
        Izmair  T  T  T  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E  E
---Ukraine----------------------------------------------------------
          Kiev  U  U  U  P  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
       Kharkov  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
        Odessa  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  E  E
    Sevastipol  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
-West Europe--------------------------------------------------------
       Belgium  .  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  B  B  G  G  G  G  G
       Holland  .  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G
       Ireland  .  B  B  B  B  B  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G  G
        Monaco  .  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
      Portugal  .  S  S  B  B  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
   Switzerland  .  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  I  F  F  F  F  F

Germany builds an army in each of her three free supply centres, Berlin, Hamburg and Frankfurt.