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As it turned out, there were no modifications, and these are the results:
The French unit in Bordeaux retreats to Auvergne. Hippie comments that he feels that this game is heading straight into a draw. Is he correct? Let us see if he can find a weakness in the combined might of France, Egypt and the Ukraine. I will be assuming that each of these powers prefers sharing in a draw to losing (and that they prefer winning to sharing in a draw!). In other words Egypt, France and the Ukraine will not stab each other if it means that Germany will benefit as a result - but that they will stab if they can win (or have a fair chance of winning) as a result of that stab. I'll also be assuming, at least at first, that we have an agressive Germany, and everybody else is defending. I aim to go on to consider a defensive Germany against an attacking alliance, and if time is availble I'll consider whether a mixed strategy is possible, i.e. an attacking strategy which does not open up any defensive holes. No promises though - I'm making this up as I go along! Let us take the situation in the east, province by province. Volga: This province has up to three German units available to attack it, and four uncuttable supports (three if one threatens Kazakhstan by occupying Siberia, don't forget that the Fleet in Rostov can support Volga due to the canal). Unfortunately, in order to defend Volga, Kharkov cannot support the
Central Russian Plateau. Kharkov would have provided the only
uncuttable support. If Moscow is diverted to attack the Central Russian
Plateau we could see CRP being dislodged. Fortunately, Kiel is
available to support CRP, and even if Bielorussia cuts the support from
Kiel then CRP cannot be dislodged! We now have the West to examine, which at first sight this seems to
be the only area for German hope. In the next map segment I have chosen
to show units which have no direct bearing upon the border IF they are
unaccounted for above, which are available for convoy to France, Where
alternatives exist (e.g. Alb, Izm and Nap) I have shown the one which
makes the map smaller, Germany has no unaccounted for armies which are
available for convoy. Bordeaux must be sacrificed to the German, unless it is deemed that Bordeaux is valued more highly than Paris - and even then it could not be recovered reliably. Barcelona can be made French again, this seems neccesary if France is not forced to disband a potentially crucial unit - though it would be more advantageous to the allies if the Egyptian could convoy in an army this cannot be done without losing a French SC to Egypt. I'd take Barcelona by attacking Barcelona from the Gulf off Lyon, with Egyptian support. Simultaneously, Andalusa would go to Madrid in an effort to prevent Madrid falling, and the fleet in the Straits of Gibraltar would go to Andalusa for the same reason. Meanwhile, the fleet in Gibraltar should move to Seville, where it would be more effective. France's remaining Atlantic fleets would mutually support each other - and this would seem to lock Spain up against the German. Possible future problems would be a German army in Navarra attacking Auvergne, Auvergne may be supported by moving the Egyptian fleet in TYS to GoL now. Paris will fall eventually, but this should not break the defensive line. It seems that Hippie is right, and that (unless I have erred) a stalemate is inevitable if the optimum defensive strategy is played. In other words, the optimum German attack cannot win the game unless a mistake is made by the enemies of Germany. The next question which must be asked is this: Is an attack possible which will weaken Germany? Even if an attack ISN'T possible then paradoxically it may be Germany's best interest to 'err' and allow an attack to succeed. Perhaps if an attack does happen Germany may be able to sow dissension among the allies and then mount an offensive which makes use of the less than optimum defenses - or perhaps Germany may be able to draw the allies out of position allowing a counter offensive. This is not ideal as it has risk of losing all, but it is the only way to go if a draw is unpalatable for Hippie. (Anyone else trying to adopt a similar strategy, breaking the line to make good of the disorganisation, would be committing suicide, as the only person to benefit would be Hippie, and Hippie is close to the win). I'll not discuss these possibilities now, mainly because I've whittered on for long enough, and I haven't the inclination to look further now. I'll leave the investigation of this possibility as a little exercise for the reader of these logs after the game is done (assuming that Hippie didn't think of it, and pull it off, himself!) In looking for attack plans for the alliance, I shall only include such plans that would not weaken the defensive line. Moscow could be safely attacked from Volga with the support of the Central Russian Plateau and Volga would be defended by ordering F Ros-Vol supported by Kaz. This, however, could be easily blocked by using Latvia to support Moscow. An attack on Bielorussia is blocked just as easily. This story is repeated across the board, with attacks easily blocked by a supporting unit - or by the danger of a breach in the defence. This is my first look at the whole board situation for a while, and, unless I have made an error and there is some sneaky thing which I've overlooked, then I feel it highly likely that the game will end in a stalemate. In fact, I'm surprised that one of the players, who presumably are continually studying this problem in more depth than I, have not proposed that a draw be declared already! Here are possible outcomes of this game:
I consider the second as the most likely outcome, though the third would be the most entertaining. The third would be a risky business for Germany (whether to fall back in the east or west and allow Ukraine or France to benefit - Piers in the Ukraine is certainly more scary. Sorry Mikey, but you don't inspire that kind of fear but on the other hand Piers may be less dangerous as he has Suzi nearby to keep him in check, whilst Mikey is rather close to the German centre of power, and still fuming over being betrayed!) I'd love to see the third outcome happen, and have Germany fall back. It would certainly confuse a few people! Mikey, in France, made the following comment: Whoops.
... and speaking of Hippie, he's just submitted a rather cunning set of moves, which I had completely overlooked: A Mun s A Ruh - Als This should gain him Paris, whilst not risking his current position. To counter this, Mikey would have to attack Bordeaux with Auvergne. I don't see any security holes for Mikey in doing such a thing, though Hippie could counter this by attacking Paris from Bordeaux with the support of Bri, and use is Bay of Biscay fleet to keep Mike out of Bordeaux. Unfortunately this would have the disadvantage of bouncing in Bordeaux, leaving it French, IF Mikey foresaw all this (which he hasn't). ----- Mikey has just had a change of plan, and updated his orders, the changes can be seen in the results.
The French Army in Paris retreats to Picardy. The following table summarises the changing SC situation - this is not always the same as the number of adjusts!
The following table summarises the changing situation, detailing the number of units currently owned, the number of SC's and the number of available adjustments, after the number of free SCs has been considered. A positive adjust number means that builds are due, a negative number means that units are to be removed. Note, builds do not have to be taken, they can be waived - please send a waive order to the GM if you wish to do this. Also detailed are the number of SC's required to win (the win condition is 33 SC's).
The following table contains a game summary, broken down by power. The NMR/Late score are for the current player.
Dropouts: The following table contains a game summary, broken down by SC. Sc's are grouped roughly according to geographical area. Start End SC 95 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 ----Africa---------------------------------------------------------- Libya . E E E I I I E E E E E E E E Morocco . B S S S S S S F F F E E F F Tunisia . I I I I I I I E E F F E E E ---Britain---------------------------------------------------------- Edinburgh B B B B B B B B B G G G G G G Gibraltar B B B S S S F F F F F F F F F Liverpool B B B B B B B G G B B G G G G London B B B G G G B B G G G G G G G -Central Europe----------------------------------------------------- Austria . I I I I G G G G F F F F F F Bulgaria . T T I I I I U U U E U U U U Croatia . I I I I I I I I I I F F F F Czechoslovakia . P P P P P P P P G G G G G G Greece . T T I I I I E E G E E E E E Hungary . U U U I I I I U U U U F U U Rumania . U U U I U I U U U U U U U U Serbia . . I I I I I I E E E U U U U ----Egypt----------------------------------------------------------- Alexandria E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E Aswan E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E Cairo E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E ----France---------------------------------------------------------- Bordeaux F F F F F F F F F F F F F F G Lyon F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F Marseilles F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F Paris F F F F F F F F F F F F F F G ---Germany---------------------------------------------------------- Berlin G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G Frankfurt G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G Hamburg G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G Munich G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G ----Italy----------------------------------------------------------- Milan I I I I I I F F F F F F F F F Naples I I I I I I I I E E E E E E E Rome I I I I I I I I I F F F F E E Venice I I I I I I I I I F F F F F F --Middle East------------------------------------------------------- Iran . T T T E E E E E E E E E E E Israel . E E E E E E E E E E E E E E Saudi Arabia . E E E E E E E E E E E E E E ----Poland---------------------------------------------------------- Gdansk P P P P P P P P P P G G G G G Krakow P P P P P P P P P G G G G G G Warsaw P P P P P P P P P P G G G G G ----Russia---------------------------------------------------------- Gorky R R R R R R R R U U G G G G G Moscow R R R R R R R R P U U U G G G Murmansk R R R R R R R G G G G G G G G Rostov R U U U U U U U U U U U U U U St. Petersburg R R R R R R R R P G G G G G G -SovSatellite------------------------------------------------------- Bielorussia . P P P R R U P P P U U G G G Georgia . T R R R R U U U U U U U U U Lithuania . P P P P R P P P G G G G G G --Scandinavia------------------------------------------------------- Denmark . G G G G G G G G G G G G G G Norway . B B B B B G G G G G G G G G Sweden . R R P P P G G G G G G G G G ----Spain----------------------------------------------------------- Barcelona S S S F F F F F F F F F F F F Madrid S S S S F F F F F F F F F F F Seville S S B B S F S F F F F F F F F ----Turkey---------------------------------------------------------- Adana T T T T E E E E E E E E E E E Ankara T T T U U U U U U U U U E E E Istanbul T T T I I I E E E E E U U U U Izmair T T T E E E E E E E E E E E E ---Ukraine---------------------------------------------------------- Kiev U U U P U U U U U U U U U U U Kharkov U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U Odessa U U U U U U U U U U U U U E E Sevastipol U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U -West Europe-------------------------------------------------------- Belgium . G G G G G G G B B G G G G G Holland . G G G G G G G G G G G G G G Ireland . B B B B B G G G G G G G G G Monaco . F F F F F F F F F F F F F F Portugal . S S B B F F F F F F F F F F Switzerland . F F F F F F F F I F F F F FFrance disbands her fleets in Andalusa and Gibraltar. Germany builds an army in each of her three free supply centres, Berlin, Hamburg and Frankfurt. |